A Three-Part Note on Copper

Copper is once again framed as a consensus trade.
“Supercycle”, “electrification”, and “structural supply shortage” are repeatedly invoked — often to explain everything, and therefore nothing.

This short series does not argue for a price target.
It examines how these narratives are constructed, and where they quietly fail.

Part I — The Supercycle Illusion

Why “supercycle” has become a shortcut that replaces analysis.

Part II — Electrification and the Time Mismatch

Long-term demand stories do not automatically translate into near-term tightness.

Part III — Supply Constraints, Mispriced

Supply is a real issue — but not in the way the market currently assumes.

This is not a bullish or bearish call.
It is an attempt to separate structure from story.